THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 30.2%winner in the projected 1–2–3 64.1%192 races · latest settled day: #1 4/16, top-3 9/16forensic read: #1 27.7% · top-3 63% (119)full record →
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
SIXTYGEESBABY (IRE) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. Winners here typically raced recently (93% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (73% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 3rd at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 50% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, EMPEROR CARADOC (FR) leads on 84, 6pts clear of SIXTYGEESBABY (IRE) — in form. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is LOQUELLA (IRE) — the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The market sees it differently, making SIXTYGEESBABY (IRE) the 27% favourite — a horse our figures rate 2nd.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 6
EMPEROR CARADOC (FR)
OR 75 · David Nolan / Paul Midgley
MARKET 4.3 · the market rates it a 23% chance
84.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayThe top rating in this field (84.0)Historically underestimated by the marketA course winner (2 from 3 here)
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 8
SIXTYGEESBABY (IRE)
OR 75 · Daniel Tudhope / David O'Meara
MARKET 3.65 · the market rates it a 27% chance
78.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 1−Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayDrops in class todayRated #2 in this field (78.0)Stable in form this week — 4 wins from 20 runs
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 1
JENEVER
OR 72 · Lewis Edmunds / Jessica Macey
MARKET 6.2 · the market rates it a 16% chance
71.3FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 6−6lb below his last winning mark (72 today vs 78)Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #3 in this field (71.3)Proven over the trip (33 tries, beats market expectation at 1.39)
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1LOQUELLA (IRE)net +6drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, sharp from the stalls, energy in the winning band
2EMPEROR CARADOC (FR)net +4figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3
3SIXTYGEESBABY (IRE)net +3figure top-2, drops in class, race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3 − burns early and empties
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK
Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. LOQUELLA (IRE) is the one to beat it — an edge EMPEROR CARADOC (FR) lacks: sharp from the stalls.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Worth A Second Look
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
HOODIE HOO (IRE) FIGURE #4
drops in class and returns quickly — the two angles our testing shows genuinely tighten a profile.
LOGI BEAR (IRE) FIGURE #6
John Butler's runners dropping in class win 27.0% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. drops in class and returns quickly — the two angles our testing shows genuinely tighten a profile.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible. Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
WHAT WINS THIS RACE
15 similar races at NOTTINGHAM, 5.6-6.6f, all-aged handicaps, Class 5, Jun-Aug, 2023-2026
Winners here typically raced recently (93% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (73% from the first three favourites). 20% won last time out, 40% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
40% 5yo
33% 3yo
20% 4yo
Last ran
73% 15-45d
20% within 14d
7% 46-90d
Market
33% favourite
27% 4th+ in the market
20% 3rd favourite
LTO form
40% placed last time
40% unplaced last time
20% won last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 8 runners · stalls 1–8
12345678
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is drawn HIGH (early types average stall 8.0 of 8, field average 4.5).
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: EMPEROR CARADOC (FR) is 1/11 on softer ground · SIXTYGEESBABY (IRE) is 0/4 on softer ground · JENEVER is 0/3 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
EMPEROR CARADOC (FR)MID50.5%98.0held up without the late gear (6th of 8 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
SIXTYGEESBABY (IRE)PROMINENT51.1%95.8the only measured early speed in the race, and spends more than winners here do — but empties in the final 2f
HOODIE HOO (IRE)MID49.3%100.4one-paced late — 4th of 8 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
JENEVERMID50.8%99.3one-paced late — 5th of 8 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
LOQUELLA (IRE)MID49.0%102.5the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
LOGI BEAR (IRE)HELD-UP51.3%96.4held up without the late gear (7th of 8 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
SOUTHERN WARRIOR (IRE)MID49.8%100.7the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
DARK KESTREL (IRE)HELD-UP49.4%100.4the 3rd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
SIXTYGEESBABY (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1.1 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.11s off the field’s best
SIXTYGEESBABY (IRE) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1EMPEROR CARADOC (FR)MID
DRAW 6 · OR 75 · David Nolan / Paul Midgley
MARKET 4.3 · the market rates it a 23% chance
Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−
84.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 6pts clear of the next, in form; held up without the late gear (6th of 8 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
84.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 84
Official mark (OR)
75 · last won off 74
Record at today's distance
4 wins from 31 tries · beats market expectation (1.08)
Days since last run
17
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent · clock read is off a superseded run
Career sheet · last 18 months · 17 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Paul Midgley · 843 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 4-5 company ✦41/37710.9%1.0714/11312.4%1.22
Above their last winning mark ✦29/24212.0%1.0111/9012.2%1.19
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)28/24011.7%1.022/229.1%0.75
Coming back after 15 to 45 days45/39811.3%1.039/939.7%0.83
Too few runners to read reliably
At Nottingham (small sample)9/3923.1%1.362/922.2%1.06
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 85 at/around today's trip, clears the ~78.0 demand
The rider
David Nolan · last 14 days: 1/14· at Nottingham: A/E 1.14 (n38)· with this yard: A/E 0.97 (n320)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 8
+0.03 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph6th of 8
+0.23s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed6th of 8
98.0%
One-paced late
Stride length1st of 8
7.73 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
2 Jun 26Pontefract6fGood5thTrue39.9 -0.2296.4+0.31
9 May 26Leicester6fGd/Frm3rdTrue41.5 -0.0194.4+0.09
2 May 26Thirsk6fGd/Frm1stTrue42.0 +0.02100.6+0.37
29 Mar 26Doncaster5fGd/Sft13thSlow early39.3 -0.4097.3+0.08
Timed runs 2026-03-29 to 2026-07-04. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
Read through a common rival
vs JENEVER (read through KATS BOB, TIRIAC, ROCK OPERA, PROFITEER) ≈ -4.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs DARK KESTREL (IRE) (read through DARK SIDE THUNDER, WILLOLARUPI, GLORY HYDE, CHARLIE MASON) ≈ -3.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs SIXTYGEESBABY (IRE) (read through KATS BOB, THE GOOD BISCUIT, ROCK OPERA, MISTER SOX) ≈ -3.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs HOODIE HOO (IRE) (read through THE GOOD BISCUIT, ABERAMA GOLD, KATS BOB, KOSOMETSUKE) ≈ -1.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 5 todayThe top rating in this field (84.0)Historically underestimated by the marketA course winner (2 from 3 here)
LTO comment
“held up, ridden and headway over 1f out, kept on”
#2SIXTYGEESBABY (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 8 · OR 75 · Daniel Tudhope / David O'Meara
MARKET 3.65 · the market rates it a 27% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 1−
78.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 6pts off the top, prominent in the betting; tends to burn early and empty out.
FormLab Figure
78.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 94
Official mark (OR)
75 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 12 tries · below market expectation (0.5)
Days since last run
10
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.5s) Usually races prominent and weakens
Career sheet · last 18 months · 10 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
David O'Meara · 2021 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)90/65213.8%1.046/698.7%0.68
Too few runners to read reliably
At Nottingham (small sample)1/175.9%0.471/714.3%1.03
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 97 at/around today's trip, clears the ~78.0 demand
The rider
Daniel Tudhope · last 14 days: 6/44· at Nottingham: A/E 0.6 (n38)· with this yard: A/E 0.95 (n826)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields7th of 8
-0.22 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 40.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 8
+0.11s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed8th of 8
95.8%
One-paced late
Stride length4th of 8
7.53 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
11 Jul 26York6fGd/Frm5thTrue41.4 -0.1796.8+0.27
26 Jun 26Doncaster6fGd/Frm8thTrue42.0 -0.0899.6+0.02
16 May 26Newmarket6fGood10thTrue41.3 -0.1089.9+0.22
Timed runs 2026-03-29 to 2026-07-11. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+9.6L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs EMPEROR CARADOC (FR) (read through KATS BOB, THE GOOD BISCUIT, ROCK OPERA, MISTER SOX) ≈ +3.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs HOODIE HOO (IRE) (read through THE GOOD BISCUIT, KATS BOB, GLORY HYDE, AMERICAN STYLE) ≈ -2.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs DARK KESTREL (IRE) (read through GLORY HYDE, ALONDRA, GOOD EARTH, JUAN LES PINS) ≈ -2.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayDrops in class todayRated #2 in this field (78.0)Stable in form this week — 4 wins from 20 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultRace-fit — ran 10 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Prominent — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“chased leaders, pushed along before halfway, held when short of room final 100 yds, weakened”
#3JENEVERMID
DRAW 1 · OR 72 · Lewis Edmunds / Jessica Macey
MARKET 6.2 · the market rates it a 16% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 6−
71.3FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 12.7pts off the top, proven at the trip; one-paced late — 5th of 8 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
71.3 · ranked #3 here · career best 88
Official mark (OR)
72 · last won off 78
Record at today's distance
6 wins from 33 tries · beats market expectation (1.39)
Days since last run
37
Sectional clock
Last time: 0.9s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races midfield
Career sheet · last 18 months · 16 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Jessica Macey · 420 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.2 on the exchange
Signature angle: kept to the same class, with a new jockey booked, hidden_effort NORMAL-LTO, after a slow start last time, without a recent yard winner, as an exposed handicapper, mid-campaign
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 5-6f trips17/16310.4%0.930/390.0%0.0
Below their last winning mark7/2626.9%2.050/390.0%0.0
In fields of 8-1119/18610.2%0.980/630.0%0.0
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦15/1688.9%0.861/611.6%0.19
On turf14/1718.2%0.841/621.6%0.2
In Class 4-5 company15/1649.1%0.971/601.7%0.25
Too few runners to read reliably
At Nottingham (small sample)1/137.7%1.011/425.0%1.88
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)7/987.1%0.721/616.7%0.9
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 89 at/around today's trip, clears the ~78.0 demand
The rider
Lewis Edmunds · last 14 days: 2/28· at Nottingham: A/E 1.72 (n44)· with this yard: A/E 0.96 (n235)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 8
-0.09 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.2 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 8
+0.13s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 8
99.3%
One-paced late
Stride length5th of 8
7.42 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
14 Jun 26Doncaster7fGood8thTrue40.7 -0.27100.8+0.02
Timed runs 2026-02-20 to 2026-06-14. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
DARK KESTREL (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 12.3L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly
25 May 24 · 6f · Good — finished 5th vs 19th, 20.05L ahead
vs EMPEROR CARADOC (FR) (read through KATS BOB, TIRIAC, ROCK OPERA, PROFITEER) ≈ +4.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
6lb below his last winning mark (72 today vs 78)Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 5 todayRated #3 in this field (71.3)Proven over the trip (33 tries, beats market expectation at 1.39)Jockey goes well at this track (1.72x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 2 here)
4th on the figures, 13pts off the top, dropping in class; one-paced late — 4th of 8 on late speed in this field, races handy on energy — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
71 · ranked #4 here · career best 86
Official mark (OR)
74 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 14 tries · below market expectation (0.41)
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.4s) Usually races prominent
Career sheet · last 18 months · 13 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Charles Hills · 737 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.0 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In Class 4-5 company32/3509.1%0.713/8116.0%1.37
Over 5-6f trips20/2268.8%0.695/4610.9%1.28
Coming back after 15 to 45 days34/29611.5%0.929/6813.2%1.22
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
On turf ✦41/4319.5%0.97/987.1%0.73
Too few runners to read reliably
At Nottingham (small sample)1/911.1%0.850/40.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 88 at/around today's trip, clears the ~78.0 demand
The rider
Jason Watson · last 14 days: 5/26· at Nottingham: A/E 0.76 (n33)· with this yard: A/E 1.25 (n144)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields6th of 8
-0.13 mph
About the level of its fields · 41.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 8
+0.19s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 8
100.4%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length3rd of 8
7.60 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
2 Oct 25 · 6.1f · Gd/Sft — finished 2nd vs 1st, 0.2L behind
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-1.8L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs SIXTYGEESBABY (IRE) (read through THE GOOD BISCUIT, KATS BOB, GLORY HYDE, AMERICAN STYLE) ≈ +2.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs EMPEROR CARADOC (FR) (read through THE GOOD BISCUIT, ABERAMA GOLD, KATS BOB, KOSOMETSUKE) ≈ +1.6L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs DARK KESTREL (IRE) (read through GLORY HYDE, CHARLIE MASON, BABA REZA, SPIRIT OF APPLAUSE) ≈ +1.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayDrops in class todayRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“in touch, brief effort over 1f out, not sustain effort”
#5LOQUELLA (IRE)MID
DRAW 4 · OR 71 · Rowan Scott / Charlie Johnston
MARKET 48 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 2−
61.7FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 22.3pts off the top, sharp from the stalls; the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
61.7 · ranked #5 here · career best 72
Official mark (OR)
71 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 4 tries
Days since last run
17
Sectional clock
Last time: 0.8s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races front-runner (cooked late) · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 102.5% (holds late)
Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Charlie Johnston · 2323 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.5 on the exchange
Signature angle: with the mark MARK-FALLING3+
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Over 5-6f trips ✦17/1948.8%0.682/504.0%0.38
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦104/85612.1%0.9922/2379.3%0.79
Too few runners to read reliably
At Nottingham (small sample)2/306.7%0.510/70.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 72 is below the ~78.0 the race demands
The rider
Rowan Scott · last 14 days: 4/15· at Nottingham: A/E 1.4 (n31)· with this yard: A/E 2.01 (n32)
Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 8
+0.09 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 8
-0.02s
Quicker away than the field · fast away 2 of 4
Finish · closing speed1st of 8
102.5%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length8th of 8
7.11 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
1 May 26Newcastle6fSlow5thFast early39.2 -0.48101.9—
11 Mar 26Southwell7fStd6thFast early39.4 +0.01100.0+0.03
23 Jan 26Wolverhampton6fStd2ndTrue39.5 +0.25101.9+0.01
27 Nov 25Newcastle6fStandard1stSlow early40.6 +0.30108.4+0.00
Timed runs 2025-11-27 to 2026-07-04. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
1 May 26 · 6f · Slow — finished 5th vs 6th, 4.25L ahead
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+4.2L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Drops in class todayOnly 4 runs at this distanceStable cold this week — 1 wins from 24 runsJockey goes well at this track (1.4x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“mid-field, ridden over 2f out, weakened over 1f out”
#6LOGI BEAR (IRE)HELD-UP
DRAW 5 · OR 70 · David Egan / John Butler
MARKET 9.4 · the market rates it a 11% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 4+ / 0−
60.7FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
6th on the figures, 23.3pts off the top, dropping in class; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
60.7 · ranked #6 here · career best 84
Official mark (OR)
70 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 14 tries · below market expectation (0.58)
Days since last run
24
Sectional clock
Last time: 1.4s slower than par — the result flattered it Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 96.36% (one-paced late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 12 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
John Butler · 887 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.1 on the exchange
Signature angle: dropping in class, off a judgement-rated last figure
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 5-6f trips5/1293.9%0.619/3525.7%2.02
In fields of 8-1130/4017.5%0.8224/9824.5%1.62
In Class 4-5 company18/3355.4%0.7726/12121.5%1.48
Coming back after 15 to 45 days24/3427.0%0.7722/11419.3%1.33
Too few runners to read reliably
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)17/1829.3%1.037/1546.7%2.18
At Nottingham (small sample)2/1612.5%2.80/30.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 84 at/around today's trip, clears the ~78.0 demand
The rider
David Egan · last 14 days: 7/27· at Nottingham: A/E 1.24 (n30)· with this yard: A/E 1.61 (n83)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 8
-0.05 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph7th of 8
+0.32s
Slow away in 2 of 4 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed7th of 8
96.4%
One-paced late
Stride length2nd of 8
7.72 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
27 Jun 26York6fGood9thTrue—93.9—
5 Jun 26Thirsk6fGood2ndFast early41.2 +0.1397.7+0.38
15 May 26Newmarket6fGood6thFast early41.0 +0.1098.3+0.00
1 May 26Newcastle6fSlow6thFast early39.6 -0.06100.5—
4 Oct 25Newmarket7fGood16thTrue40.4 -0.4595.0+0.32
23 Aug 25Newmarket6fGd/Frm19thTrue40.8 +0.0292.8+0.57
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2025-08-23 to 2026-06-27. · 1 run(s) have no recorded top speed; 2 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
1 May 26 · 6f · Slow — finished 6th vs 5th, 4.25L behind
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 2 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 2 rival(s) met (-1.8L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 2 winner, racing in Class 5 todayDrops in class todayLost roughly 1.7 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“waited with, carried right over 2f out, headway over 1f out, edged left, kept on final 1f”
#7DARK KESTREL (IRE)HELD-UPFORMLAB WATCH
DRAW 7 · OR 56 · Cam Hardie / Antony Brittain
MARKET 19 · the market rates it a 5% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 1−
57.7FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
7th on the figures, 26.3pts off the top, flagged on our watch list; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
57.7 · ranked #7 here · career best 82
Official mark (OR)
56 · last won off 70
Record at today's distance
5 wins from 48 tries · in line with the market (0.97)
Days since last run
15
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.3s) Usually races held-up closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 100.44% (one-paced late)
Headgear
First-time visor and tongue strap
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 32 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Antony Brittain · 608 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.3 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Over 5-6f trips21/3296.4%0.8212/11010.9%1.23
Coming back after 15 to 45 days11/1616.8%0.977/848.3%1.21
Below their last winning mark3/417.3%1.013/2810.7%1.2
In Class 4-5 company11/1676.6%0.945/667.6%1.15
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
On turf0/1000.0%0.01/512.0%0.46
Too few runners to read reliably
At Nottingham (small sample)0/100.0%0.00/50.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)3/853.5%0.810/100.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 84 at/around today's trip, clears the ~78.0 demand
The rider
Cam Hardie · last 14 days: 3/22· at Nottingham: A/E 1.06 (n49)· with this yard: A/E 0.76 (n548)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 8
+0.64 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 41.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph8th of 8
+0.87s
Slow away in 5 of 5 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed3rd of 8
100.4%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length6th of 8
7.35 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-04-07 to 2026-07-06. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
25 May 24 · 6f · Good — finished 19th vs 5th, 20.05L behind
THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-12.3L adj, 2 meeting(s))
Read through a common rival
vs EMPEROR CARADOC (FR) (read through DARK SIDE THUNDER, WILLOLARUPI, GLORY HYDE, CHARLIE MASON) ≈ +3.2L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs SIXTYGEESBABY (IRE) (read through GLORY HYDE, ALONDRA, GOOD EARTH, JUAN LES PINS) ≈ +2.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
vs HOODIE HOO (IRE) (read through GLORY HYDE, CHARLIE MASON, BABA REZA, SPIRIT OF APPLAUSE) ≈ -1.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
14lb below his last winning mark (56 today vs 70)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayLost roughly 4.4 lengths at the start last timeCut 14lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price
LTO comment
“slowly away, off pace, headway on inner from 3f out, not clear run over 2f out, switched, kept on final 1f”
#8SOUTHERN WARRIOR (IRE)MID
DRAW 3 · OR 67 · Warren Fentiman / Olly Williams
MARKET 55 · the market rates it a 2% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−
55.3FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
8th on the figures, 28.7pts off the top, one of the two strongest finishers here; the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
55.3 · ranked #8 here · career best 74
Official mark (OR)
67 · last won off 67
Record at today's distance
1 win from 7 tries · below market expectation (0.95)
Days since last run
39
Sectional clock
Last time: 3.0s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 100.68% (holds late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 7 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Olly Williams · 94 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 16.1 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of 8-112/395.1%0.682/1513.3%2.86
Coming back after 15 to 45 days2/375.4%0.951/147.1%1.42
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
On turf0/340.0%0.00/140.0%0.0
Too few runners to read reliably
In Class 4-5 company (small sample)0/120.0%0.00/30.0%0.0
At Nottingham (small sample)0/20.0%0.00/10.0%0.0
Over 5-6f trips (small sample)0/80.0%0.00/30.0%0.0
At this time of year (Q3) (small sample)0/130.0%0.00/20.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 78 at/around today's trip, clears the ~78.0 demand
The rider
Warren Fentiman · last 14 days: 0/16· at Nottingham: A/E 1.77 (n9)· with this yard: A/E 0.95 (n11)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields8th of 8
-0.27 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 39.7 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 8
+0.12s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 8
100.7%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length7th of 8
7.29 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
12 Jun 26Sandown Park7fGood10thSlow early37.3 -0.7794.7+0.23
15 May 26Newmarket6fGood5thFast early40.5 -0.4598.5+0.02
30 Mar 26Kempton Park6fSlow3rdTrue39.7 -0.77102.2+0.00
21 Mar 26Newcastle6fStd1stTrue40.8 +0.5698.8+0.19
3 Jan 26Southwell6fStd5thTrue40.1 -0.12106.0+0.15
19 Dec 25Southwell4fStd3rdSlow early40.6 -0.04103.9+0.15
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
Timed runs 2025-12-19 to 2026-06-12. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
15 May 26 · 6f · Good — finished 5th vs 6th, 0.5L ahead
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — confirms vs 1 rival(s) met (+0.5L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 5 todayJockey goes well at this track (1.77x market expectation)Historically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“off pace, pushed along 3f out, left behind 2f out”