THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 30.2%winner in the projected 1–2–3 64.1%192 races · latest settled day: #1 4/16, top-3 9/16forensic read: #1 27.7% · top-3 63% (119)full record →
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
No confirmed early pace on the book, so this one may turn tactical. Winners here typically raced recently (83% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (50% from the first three favourites); the typical winner also sits around 3rd at halfway before quickening late, having spent about 48% of its energy before the final two furlongs. On the measured reads, DARZAH leads on 87, 0pts clear of PORTH EILIAN — one of the two strongest finishers here. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is DISTANT SHORE — a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The market sees it differently, making DISTANT SHORE the 34% favourite — a horse our figures rate 3rd.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 3
DARZAH
OR 81 · Tom Marquand / William Haggas
MARKET 4 · the market rates it a 25% chance
87.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 5−The top rating in this field (87.0)Runs Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 2
PORTH EILIAN
OR 79 · Callum Rodriguez / Edward Bethell
MARKET backed 6.8 → 6.2 · the market rates it a 16% chance
87.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−Rated #2 in this field (87.0)Historically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 5
DISTANT SHORE
OR 79 · Ray Dawson / Roger Varian
MARKET 2.96 · the market rates it a 34% chance
86.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−Rated #3 in this field (86.0)
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1PORTH EILIANnet +10figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, energy in the winning band, runs the dominant winning style here, proven at trip
2DARZAHnet +6figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, FormLab watch flag
3DISTANT SHOREnet +6race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band, yard positive in today’s setup − habitually slow away
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK
Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. PORTH EILIAN is the one to beat it — an edge DARZAH lacks: backed since the morning.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Worth A Second Look
These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.
GREAT MATES FIGURE #4
Marco Botti's runners coming back after 15 to 45 days win 18.2% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
LUNA CELESTE (IRE) FIGURE #5
Tom Clover's runners on turf win 15.9% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
even/unclear early shape (no confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
WHAT WINS THIS RACE
18 similar races at NOTTINGHAM, 7.8-8.8f, all-aged handicaps, Class 3-5, Jun-Aug, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)
Winners here typically raced recently (83% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (50% from the first three favourites). 6% won last time out, 33% were placed 2nd-3rd.
Age
56% 4yo
28% 6yo+
11% 5yo
Last ran
50% 15-45d
33% within 14d
6% first run
Market
50% 4th+ in the market
28% favourite
22% 2nd favourite
LTO form
56% unplaced last time
33% placed last time
6% won last time
The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.
Where the pace is drawn · 5 runners · stalls 1–5
12345
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner.
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: DARZAH is 1/2 on softer ground · PORTH EILIAN is 1/2 on softer ground · DISTANT SHORE is 1/1 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
GREAT MATESMID48.7%102.8solid late gains (5th of 5 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
DARZAHMID48.6%104.3the strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it
DISTANT SHOREHELD-UP48.4%104.1a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
PORTH EILIANMID47.9%103.4a genuine turn of foot — 4th-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
LUNA CELESTE (IRE)MID48.4%103.6a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1DARZAHMID
DRAW 3 · OR 81 · Tom Marquand / William Haggas
MARKET 4 · the market rates it a 25% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 5−
87.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, just ahead of the next, one of the two strongest finishers here; the strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
87.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 87
Official mark (OR)
81 · last won off 78
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 4 tries · beats market expectation (2.0)
Days since last run
26
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 104.31% (strong late)
Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
William Haggas · 1584 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)134/54924.4%1.126/5710.5%0.49
Over 7-8f trips104/51320.3%1.023/14915.4%0.74
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦138/63321.8%0.9827/15717.2%0.82
In fields of <=7 ✦94/35226.7%0.9125/10922.9%0.83
In Class 4-5 company164/66824.6%1.0326/13918.7%0.84
Too few runners to read reliably
At Nottingham (small sample)6/3417.6%0.91/128.3%0.32
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 87 at/around today's trip, clears the ~86.0 demand
The rider
Tom Marquand · last 14 days: 1/41· at Nottingham: A/E 0.62 (n33)· with this yard: A/E 1 (n858)
Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 5
+0.07 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.1 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 5
+0.09s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 5
104.3%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length5th of 5
6.98 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
25 Jun 26Newmarket8fGd/Frm1stTrue40.2 +0.42109.1+0.10
28 May 26Sandown Park8fGood8thTrue37.7 -0.33100.0+0.02
13 May 26Bath8fFirm1stFast early38.9 +0.6899.6+0.13
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.26par2f+0.44very slow3f+0.42very slow4f+0.46slow5f+0.42par6f+0.36fast7f+0.15very fast1mledvery fast
Timed runs 2026-04-15 to 2026-06-25. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met
LUNA CELESTE (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 0.2L behind on today's terms · line-ball
25 Jun 26 · 8f · Gd/Frm — finished 1st vs 2nd, 0.75L ahead
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — line-ball vs 1 rival(s) met (-0.2L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (81 today vs 78)The top rating in this field (87.0)Only 4 runs at this distanceStable cold this week — 1 wins from 12 runsRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“mid-field, progress wide over 1f out, carried right approaching final ½f, never on terms”
#2PORTH EILIANMIDDOOR 2 · UNDER-RAISED WINNER
DRAW 2 · OR 79 · Callum Rodriguez / Edward Bethell
MARKET backed 6.8 → 6.2 · the market rates it a 16% chance
Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 2−
87.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Level at the head of the figures (2nd), backed since the morning; a genuine turn of foot — 4th-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
87.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 87
Official mark (OR)
79 · last won off 75
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 5 tries · beats market expectation (1.84)
Days since last run
17
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.3s) · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 103.44% (strong late)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Edward Bethell · 859 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.1 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)39/25315.4%0.959/4221.4%1.22
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Above their last winning mark ✦21/13515.6%0.886/5710.5%0.63
In fields of <=7 ✦31/15420.1%0.8311/8113.6%0.67
Too few runners to read reliably
At Nottingham (small sample)5/1533.3%1.591/137.7%0.68
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 86 at/around today's trip, clears the ~86.0 demand
The rider
Callum Rodriguez · last 14 days: 3/20· at Nottingham: A/E 1.15 (n42)· with this yard: A/E 1.05 (n498)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields4th of 5
-0.00 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.5 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 5
+0.17s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed4th of 5
103.4%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length3rd of 5
7.13 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-10-17 to 2026-07-04. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
2 May 26 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 4th vs 3rd, 0.5L behind
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — reverses vs 1 rival(s) met (-0.5L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
4lb above his last winning mark (79 today vs 75)Rated #2 in this field (87.0)Only 5 runs at this distanceStable cold this week — 0 wins from 13 runsHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“chased leaders, shaken up under 3f out, stayed on to lead over 1f out, readily”
#3DISTANT SHOREHELD-UP
DRAW 5 · OR 79 · Ray Dawson / Roger Varian
MARKET 2.96 · the market rates it a 34% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−
86.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 1pts off the top, a yard that scores in today’s conditions; habitually slow from the stalls.
FormLab Figure
86.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 86
Official mark (OR)
79 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 3 tries
Days since last run
38
Sectional clock
Last time: beat the class par by 0.9s · best on the clock in its race Usually races held-up closer
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 104.09% (strong late)
Headgear
Hood · yard 15% with first-time gear (A/E 0.96)
Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Roger Varian · 1085 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.5 on the exchange
Signature angle: off a falsely-run (hidden) last run
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days84/45718.4%0.923/9923.2%1.15
Too few runners to read reliably
At Nottingham (small sample)7/2133.3%1.514/1136.4%2.08
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 86 at/around today's trip, clears the ~86.0 demand
The rider
Ray Dawson · last 14 days: 5/29· at Nottingham: A/E 1.14 (n54)· with this yard: A/E 0.92 (n287)
Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 5
+0.27 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 38.0 raw
Break · 0-20mph5th of 5
+0.55s
Slow away in 4 of 4 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed2nd of 5
104.1%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length4th of 5
7.08 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
13 Jun 26Sandown Park8fGood2ndTrue38.0 +0.20105.0+0.39
30 May 26Carlisle6fGd/Frm5thTrue38.3 +0.17101.9+0.67
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.78par2f+1.03par3f+1.03slow4f+1.12very slow5f+0.82slow6f+0.57par7f+0.18very fast1m+0.03very fast
Timed runs 2025-07-23 to 2026-06-13. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
2 May 26 · 7f · Gd/Frm — finished 3rd vs 4th, 0.5L ahead
THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — confirms vs 1 rival(s) met (+0.5L adj, 1 meeting(s))
Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.
Rated #3 in this field (86.0)Only 3 runs at this distanceLost roughly 1.8 lengths at the start last time — the defeat reads better than the bare resultNEARLY WON LTO — traded 1.19 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)
LTO comment
“held up, effort over 2f out, headway entering final 1f, took second final ½f, stayed on”
#4GREAT MATESMIDDOOR 2 · UNDER-RAISED WINNER
DRAW 4 · OR 77 · Marco Ghiani / Marco Botti
MARKET 6.6 · the market rates it a 15% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 3+ / 0−
85.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
4th on the figures, 2pts off the top, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; solid late gains (5th of 5 on late speed here), yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
85.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 85
Official mark (OR)
77 · last won off 74
Record at today's distance
2 wins from 9 tries · beats market expectation (1.12)
Days since last run
19
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.3s) · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 102.77% (holds late)
Headgear
First-time hood · yard 7% with first-time gear (A/E 0.78)
Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Marco Botti · 833 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)25/18813.3%1.225/2420.8%1.42
In fields of <=7 ✦36/19518.5%1.1111/4325.6%1.3
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦43/32513.2%1.0214/7718.2%1.2
Too few runners to read reliably
At Nottingham (small sample)0/110.0%0.01/812.5%1.01
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 85 is below the ~86.0 the race demands
The rider
Marco Ghiani · last 14 days: 6/37· at Nottingham: A/E 0.83 (n45)· with this yard: A/E 1.2 (n268)
Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 5
+0.28 mph
Faster than the fields it has met · 40.4 raw
Break · 0-20mph4th of 5
+0.20s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed5th of 5
102.8%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length1st of 5
7.50 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2025-10-06 to 2026-07-02. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
3lb above his last winning mark (77 today vs 74)Improving fast — last run rated 85, 17pts above his recent average of 68.0Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits
LTO comment
“handy, pushed along 3f out, challenged under 2f out, led soon after, edged right final 1f, kept on”
#5LUNA CELESTE (IRE)MID
DRAW 1 · OR 75 · Saffie Osborne / Tom Clover
MARKET 10 · the market rates it a 10% chance
Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−
81.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
5th on the figures, 6pts off the top, runs the winning energy pattern for the track; a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
81.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 81
Official mark (OR)
75 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 1 tries
Days since last run
26
Sectional clock
Last time: ran to par for the class · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent-closer
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 103.56% (strong late)
Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
Tom Clover · 504 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.5 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
In fields of <=718/8920.2%0.989/3923.1%1.31
At this time of year (Q3)25/14017.9%1.274/1921.1%1.24
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦27/19114.1%0.998/5913.6%0.85
Too few runners to read reliably
At Nottingham (small sample)0/120.0%0.01/616.7%1.76
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 81 is below the ~86.0 the race demands
The rider
Saffie Osborne · last 14 days: 4/39· at Nottingham: A/E 1.18 (n36)· with this yard: A/E 0.68 (n5)
Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields5th of 5
-0.12 mph
About the level of its fields · 39.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 5
+0.07s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed3rd of 5
103.6%
Sustains — still going at the line
Stride length2nd of 5
7.41 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
25 Jun 26Newmarket8fGd/Frm2ndTrue39.3 -0.45108.6+0.05
25 May 26Leicester6fFirm1stTrue42.1 +0.0798.2+0.00
25 Apr 26Southwell6fStd2ndTrue39.4 -0.08103.1—
4 Dec 25Chelmsford City6fSlow2ndTrue40.1 -0.04104.3+0.16
Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace
1f+0.20par2f+0.23very slow3f+0.28very slow4f+0.28slow5f+0.35par6f+0.33fast7f+0.20very fast1m+0.11very fast
Timed runs 2025-12-04 to 2026-06-25. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.