FORMLAB Race Report — Nottingham 16:15

FORMLAB RACING

THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT

Nottingham · 16:15

Class 6 · 9f · Good to Firm (Good in places)

GENERATED 2026-07-21 · 6 RUNNERS PROFILED

THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 30.2%winner in the projected 1–2–3 64.1%192 races · latest settled day: #1 4/16, top-3 9/16forensic read: #1 27.7% · top-3 63% (119)full record →

The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW

Nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front. Winners here typically raced recently (88% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (58% from the first three favourites). On the measured reads, SAHM NAIF (IRE) leads on 70, 3pts clear of BEAUTY GENERATION (IRE) — in form. The case against the top pick: rated well above the mark it last won from. The shape danger is TAKEITORLEAVEIT (IRE) — the quickest of today's early types — and finds plenty late, sharp from the stalls. The market is line-ball — it just prefers TAKEITORLEAVEIT (IRE) at 30% to our top pick.

MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE

The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3

1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 3

SAHM NAIF (IRE)

OR 66 · George Wood / James Horton

MARKET drifting 2.98 → 3.45 · the market rates it a 29% chance

70.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD

Yard suits today’s conditions · 5+ / 0−Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayThe top rating in this field (70.0)Race-fit — ran 2 days agoHistorically underestimated by the market

2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 6

BEAUTY GENERATION (IRE)

OR 58 · Jack Mitchell / Ross Burdon

MARKET 3.7 · the market rates it a 27% chance

67.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD

Yard suits today’s conditions · 6+ / 0−Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #2 in this field (67.0)Proven over the trip (19 tries, beats market expectation at 1.33)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare result

3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 1

THE BUREAU CLUB (FR)

OR 60 · Tom Marquand / Charlie Pike

MARKET backed 13.5 → 12 · the market rates it a 8% chance

65.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD

Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 3−Drops in class todayRated #3 in this field (65.0)

The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY

1BEAUTY GENERATION (IRE)net +8figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 speed vs its fields, proven at trip, yard positive in today’s setup, FormLab watch flag

2TAKEITORLEAVEIT (IRE)net +8race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 late speed today, quickest early type, sharp from the stalls, runs the dominant winning style here

3SAHM NAIF (IRE)net +5figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, runs the dominant winning style here, yard positive in today’s setup − 5lb+ above last winning mark

EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD

THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK

SAHM NAIF (IRE) carries rated well above the mark it last won from. BEAUTY GENERATION (IRE) is the one to beat it — an edge SAHM NAIF (IRE) lacks: proven at the trip.

Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.

Worth A Second Look

These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.

TAKEITORLEAVEIT (IRE) FIGURE #4

Jonathan Portman's runners kept to the same class win 20.3% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.

Race ShapePACE × FINISH

even/unclear early shape (2 confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.

WHAT WINS THIS RACE

26 similar races at NOTTINGHAM, 8.0-10.0f, all-aged handicaps, Class 5-7, May-Sep, 2023-2026 (class band widened for sample)

Winners here typically raced recently (88% within 45 days) and were prominent in the betting (58% from the first three favourites). 15% won last time out, 38% were placed 2nd-3rd.

Age

46% 4yo

31% 6yo+

19% 5yo

Last ran

54% 15-45d

35% within 14d

8% 91d+

Market

42% 4th+ in the market

31% 2nd favourite

23% favourite

LTO form

46% unplaced last time

38% placed last time

15% won last time

The shape of past winners here · context only, never picks the horse.

Where the pace is drawn · 6 runners · stalls 1–6

123456

Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner. The early pace is spread across the draw (stalls 1–6).

If the ground changes

Should it turn softer: SAHM NAIF (IRE) is 1/3 on softer ground · BEAUTY GENERATION (IRE) is 0/2 on softer ground · THE BUREAU CLUB (FR) is unraced on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).

RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup

BEAUTY GENERATION (IRE) HELD-UP 49.1% 103.3 a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here — profits if the early types overdo it

HORWICH HELD-UP 49.5% 100.7 solid late gains (4th of 6 on late speed here) — profits if the early types overdo it

KATALYST PROMINENT 49.8% 98.3 a match for the quickest early — but empties in the final 2f

SAHM NAIF (IRE) MID 51.0% 99.3 one-paced late — 5th of 6 on late speed in this field — needs them to stop in front

THE BUREAU CLUB (FR) HELD-UP 49.3% 104.9 a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here — profits if the early types overdo it

TAKEITORLEAVEIT (IRE) FRONT 48.6% 106.0 the quickest of today's early types — and finds plenty late · sharp from the stalls

The early fight · measured

Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.

TAKEITORLEAVEIT (IRE)FRONTtypically ~1.6 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · breaks with the very quickest

KATALYSTPROMINENTtypically ~1.2 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · fair break, 0.14s off the field’s best

nothing separates the early types on measured speed — expect a fight for the front · context only — the shape never selects.

The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER

#1 SAHM NAIF (IRE) MID

DRAW 3 · OR 66 · George Wood / James Horton

MARKET drifting 2.98 → 3.45 · the market rates it a 29% chance

Yard suits today’s conditions · 5+ / 0−

70.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

Top on the figures, 3pts clear of the next, in form; rated well above the mark it last won from.

FormLab Figure

70.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 70

Official mark (OR)

66 · last won off 60

Record at today's distance

2 wins from 4 tries · beats market expectation (2.96)

Days since last run

2

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade below par (-0.4s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races prominent · clock read is off a superseded run

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 99.35% (one-paced late)

Headgear

First-time cheekpieces

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

1stClass 6 · 10.0f · rated 701stClass 6 · 9.9f · rated 664thClass 6 · 10.0f · rated 527thClass 4 · 7.0f · rated 488thClass 5 · 8.0f · rated 51

Career sheet · last 18 months · 6 rated runs · spacing is real time

Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

James Horton · 360 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.4 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

Above their last winning mark4/4010.0%0.886/1346.2%3.82

In Class 6-7 company4/3312.1%1.173/1421.4%1.68

Over 9-10f trips4/3312.1%1.442/1118.2%1.38

At this time of year (Q3)8/1097.3%0.881/911.1%1.31

In fields of <=711/6516.9%1.342/1513.3%1.22

Too few runners to read reliably

At Nottingham (small sample)1/137.7%0.851/250.0%3.74

Coming back after within 7 days (small sample)0/100.0%0.00/20.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 70 at/around today's trip, clears the ~69.0 demand

The rider

George Wood · last 14 days: 2/26 · at Nottingham: A/E 0.55 (n40) · with this yard: A/E 0.44 (n30)

Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields5th of 6

-0.17 mph

Slower than the fields it has met · 38.2 raw

Break · 0-20mph3rd of 6

+0.17s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed5th of 6

99.3%

One-paced late

Stride length2nd of 6

7.30 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

19 Jul 26Redcar10fGd/Frm1st—38.9 +0.11100.1+0.00—

23 Jun 26Beverley9fGd/Frm1stTrue38.2 -0.0597.8+0.21

8 Jun 26Leicester10fGood4thTrue38.2 -0.5498.3+0.31

27 May 26Kempton Park7fSlow7thFast early38.9 -0.20101.2+0.18

Timed runs 2026-05-27 to 2026-07-19. · finishing speed for 2 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met

Read through a common rival

vs BEAUTY GENERATION (IRE) (read through WADACRE GEISHA, TALKING IN KODE) ≈ -4.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

6lb above his last winning mark (66 today vs 60)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayThe top rating in this field (70.0)Only 4 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 2 days agoHistorically underestimated by the marketRuns Mid — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“mid-field, brief effort over 2f out, weakened approaching final 1f”

#2 BEAUTY GENERATION (IRE) HELD-UP

DRAW 6 · OR 58 · Jack Mitchell / Ross Burdon

MARKET 3.7 · the market rates it a 27% chance

Yard suits today’s conditions · 6+ / 0−

67.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

2nd on the figures, 3pts off the top, proven at the trip; a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here — profits if the early types overdo it.

FormLab Figure

67.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 78

Official mark (OR)

58 · last won off 55

Record at today's distance

3 wins from 19 tries · beats market expectation (1.33)

Days since last run

19

Sectional clock

Last time: beat the class par by 1.4s · best on the clock in its race
Usually races midfield-closer

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 103.31% (strong late)

Headgear

Cheekpieces

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

1stClass 6 · 10.2f · rated 675thClass 6 · 10.0f · rated 534thClass 6 · 10.0f · rated 633rdClass 6 · 9.5f · rated 635thClass 5 · 8.0f · rated 42

Career sheet · last 18 months · 14 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Ross Burdon · 127 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.6 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

In fields of <=72/450.0%2.614/1040.0%2.11

At this time of year (Q3)3/2711.1%1.141/616.7%2.1

Coming back after 15 to 45 days5/3813.2%0.998/3721.6%1.56

Over 9-10f trips0/80.0%0.02/922.2%1.49

On turf2/238.7%0.965/2718.5%1.43

Above their last winning mark2/326.2%0.465/2817.9%1.21

Too few runners to read reliably

At Nottingham (small sample)0/20.0%0.01/250.0%8.48

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 78 at/around today's trip, clears the ~69.0 demand

The rider

Jack Mitchell · last 14 days: 2/25 · at Nottingham: A/E 0.95 (n48) · with this yard: A/E 1.14 (n32)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields2nd of 6

+0.27 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 39.5 raw

Break · 0-20mph5th of 6

+0.39s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed3rd of 6

103.3%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length1st of 6

7.41 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

2 Jul 26Nottingham10fGd/Frm1stTrue38.3 +0.13105.9+0.00

26 May 26Leicester10fFirm5thTrue39.3 -0.20101.9+0.25

25 Apr 26Leicester10fGd/Frm4thTrue40.3 +0.09101.0+0.30

10 Mar 26Wolverhampton9fStd3rdTrue39.4 +0.92106.3+0.31

18 Feb 26Kempton Park8fSlow5thTrue39.8 +0.49100.1+0.71

7 Jan 26Kempton Park8fSlow7thTrue39.4 +0.16104.5+0.74

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.38par2f+0.35slow3f+0.35slow4f+0.36par5f+0.46fast6f+0.36par7f+0.38slow1m+0.28par1m 1f+0.02par1m 2fledfast

Timed runs 2026-01-07 to 2026-07-02. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met

Read through a common rival

vs SAHM NAIF (IRE) (read through WADACRE GEISHA, TALKING IN KODE) ≈ +4.9L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

3lb above his last winning mark (58 today vs 55)Proven at this level — a Class 5 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #2 in this field (67.0)Proven over the trip (19 tries, beats market expectation at 1.33)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically underestimated by the marketA course winner (1 from 2 here)

LTO comment

“tracked pace, no room 2f out, quickened to lead final 1f, edged right entering final 1f, bit in hand”

#3 THE BUREAU CLUB (FR) HELD-UP FORMLAB WATCH

DRAW 1 · OR 60 · Tom Marquand / Charlie Pike

MARKET backed 13.5 → 12 · the market rates it a 8% chance

Yard mixed — leans for · 4+ / 3−

65.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

3rd on the figures, 5pts off the top, dropping in class; habitually slow from the stalls.

FormLab Figure

65.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 65

Official mark (OR)

60 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 3 tries

Days since last run

36

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade below par (-0.4s)
Usually races held-up closer · clock read is off a superseded run

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 104.88% (strong late)

Headgear

Hood

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

7thClass 5 · 8.1f · rated 657thClass 5 · 7.0f · rated 376thClass 4 · 7.0f · rated 524thClass 4 · 8.0f · rated 654thClass 4 · 8.0f · rated 60

Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Charlie Pike · 78 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.9 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At Nottingham—1/425.0%5.13

In fields of <=7—2/1612.5%1.92

Over 9-10f trips—2/1118.2%1.82

On turf—4/478.5%1.26

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At this time of year (Q3)—0/90.0%0.0

In Class 6-7 company—1/244.2%0.5

Coming back after 15 to 45 days—1/333.0%0.6

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 68 is below the ~69.0 the race demands

The rider

Tom Marquand · last 14 days: 1/41 · at Nottingham: A/E 0.62 (n33) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n1) · notable booking — a top rider for a yard he seldom rides for

Sectional profile · last 5 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields1st of 6

+0.30 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 40.1 raw

Break · 0-20mph6th of 6

+0.78s

Slow away in 4 of 5 — habitual, so the market already knows

Finish · closing speed2nd of 6

104.9%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length3rd of 6

7.27 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

15 Jun 26Windsor8fGd/Frm7th—40.0 -0.53109.2+0.44—

1 Jun 26Lingfield7fGd/Frm7thSlow early42.1 +0.3997.6-0.02

3 May 26Salisbury6fGd/Frm6thTrue39.7 +1.7699.8+2.04

25 Mar 26Kempton Park8fSlow4thTrue38.6 -0.04105.3+0.89

28 Feb 26Lingfield8fStd4thSlow early41.8 -0.08112.5+0.53

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f—very slow2f—par3f—par4f—slow5f—fast6f—par7f—par1m—par

Timed runs 2026-02-28 to 2026-06-15. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met

Read through a common rival

vs HORWICH (read through ESPONA BAY, COURT OF STARS, FLYTA) ≈ -2.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Drops in class todayRated #3 in this field (65.0)Improving fast — last run rated 65, 13pts above his recent average of 51.3Only 3 runs at this distanceLost roughly 2.0 lengths at the start last timeBOOKING UPGRADE — 12m top-9 jockey booked, only 1 ride(s) for this yard in 12m, after non-elite riders on the horse: an intent read (context only,…Cut 2lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price

LTO comment

“dwelt, held up, headway over 2f out, weakened final 1f”

#4 TAKEITORLEAVEIT (IRE) FRONT

DRAW 5 · OR 59 · Rob Hornby / Jonathan Portman

MARKET backed 3.7 → 3.35 · the market rates it a 30% chance

Yard mixed — leans for · 2+ / 1−

65.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

4th on the figures, 5pts off the top, the quickest away of the early types; the quickest of today's early types — and finds plenty late, sharp from the stalls.

FormLab Figure

65.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 65

Official mark (OR)

59 · last won off 56

Record at today's distance

2 wins from 7 tries · beats market expectation (1.14)

Days since last run

12

Sectional clock

Last time: a shade below par (-0.7s) · faster than its field on the clock
Usually races front-runner · clock read is off a superseded run

Run style & finish

Front-runner · finishing speed 105.98% (strong late)

Headgear

Cheekpieces

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

2ndClass 6 · 10.1f · rated 652ndClass 6 · 8.1f · rated 642ndClass 5 · 9.0f · rated 647thClass 6 · 8.1f · rated 601stClass 6 · 8.0f · rated 62

Career sheet · last 18 months · 10 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Jonathan Portman · 642 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.9 on the exchange

Signature angle: at this time of year (Q2)

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

Over 9-10f trips7/719.9%0.97/2725.9%1.91

Above their last winning mark19/14413.2%1.011/7015.7%1.21

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

At this time of year (Q3)21/19310.9%1.02/229.1%0.83

Too few runners to read reliably

At Nottingham (small sample)4/1723.5%1.592/540.0%2.67

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 69 at/around today's trip, clears the ~69.0 demand

The rider

Rob Hornby · last 14 days: 4/44 · at Nottingham: A/E 1.4 (n72) · with this yard: A/E 1.16 (n363)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields3rd of 6

+0.15 mph

About the level of its fields · 38.6 raw

Break · 0-20mph1st of 6

+0.01s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed1st of 6

106.0%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length6th of 6

6.88 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

9 Jul 26Epsom Downs10fGd/Frm2nd—42.5 +0.70120.8-0.13—

22 Jun 26Windsor8fGd/Frm2ndTrue39.1 +0.04103.7—

6 Jun 26Lingfield9fSoft2ndTrue38.4 +0.34107.7+0.05

25 May 26Windsor8fGd/Frm7thTrue39.7 -0.03104.1+0.18

27 Apr 26Bath8fGd/Frm1stTrue38.9 -0.16103.7-0.14

30 Oct 25Bath8fSoft4thTrue37.0 +0.0096.0+0.08

Timed runs 2025-10-30 to 2026-07-09. · 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met

Read through a common rival

vs HORWICH (read through DARETOBEDIFFERENT, SUGGY, KARAKULA DANCER) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

vs KATALYST (read through THISONESFORYOU, BETTY LEMON) ≈ +6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

3lb above his last winning mark (59 today vs 56)Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayJockey goes well at this track (1.4x market expectation)NEARLY WON LTO — traded 2.0 in-play before being beaten: the market briefly had it the winner (context, not a selector)Race-fit — ran 12 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceRuns Front — a winning style at this course & distance; his sectional profile fits

LTO comment

“prominent, shaken up under 3f out, challenged under 2f out, upsides approaching final 1f, led briefly final ½f, kept on”

#5 KATALYST PROMINENT FORMLAB WATCH

DRAW 2 · OR 60 · Ryan Kavanagh / William Muir & Chris Grassick

MARKET backed 40 → 36 · the market rates it a 3% chance

Yard mixed · 2+ / 2−

48.5 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

5th on the figures, 21.5pts off the top, backed since the morning; a match for the quickest early — but empties in the final 2f.

FormLab Figure

48.5 · ranked #5 here · career best 67

Official mark (OR)

60 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 5 tries

Days since last run

13

Sectional clock

Last time: 3.0s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races prominent and weakens · clock read is off a superseded run

Run style & finish

Prominent · finishing speed 98.31% (one-paced late)

Headgear

First-time blinkers

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

13thClass 6 · 8.0f · rated —10thClass 5 · 8.3f · rated 324thClass 5 · 8.3f · rated 656thClass 6 · 8.0f · rated 55thClass 5 · 8.1f · rated 62

Career sheet · last 18 months · 8 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

William Muir & Chris Grassick · 474 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.6 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At this time of year (Q3)12/1557.7%0.843/2412.5%1.2

In Class 6-7 company7/808.8%0.554/3212.5%1.18

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

Coming back after 8 to 14 days10/5518.2%1.31/166.2%0.61

In fields of <=713/8714.9%1.023/319.7%0.83

Too few runners to read reliably

At Nottingham (small sample)3/1225.0%2.791/333.3%4.5

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 68 is below the ~69.0 the race demands

The rider

Ryan Kavanagh · last 14 days: 3/19 · at Nottingham: A/E 0 (n13) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n8)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields6th of 6

-0.52 mph

Slower than the fields it has met · 37.9 raw

Break · 0-20mph2nd of 6

+0.14s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed6th of 6

98.3%

One-paced late

Stride length5th of 6

7.01 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

8 Jul 26Kempton Park8fSlow13th—36.6 -2.04101.0+0.61—

3 Jun 26Nottingham8fGood10th——92.7—

19 May 26Nottingham8fGd/Sft4thTrue37.6 +0.1199.7+0.20

28 Apr 26Lingfield8fStd6thSlow early39.0 +0.0297.2+0.00

19 Dec 25Southwell8fStd5thTrue38.2 -0.25104.9+0.00

3 Nov 25Wolverhampton7fSlow6thTrue39.4 -0.4694.5-0.11

Timed runs 2025-11-03 to 2026-07-08. · 1 run(s) have no recorded top speed; 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met

Read through a common rival

vs TAKEITORLEAVEIT (IRE) (read through THISONESFORYOU, BETTY LEMON) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

vs HORWICH (read through STELLA LUCENTE, ESPANITA, SAFE HARBOR, MAYFAIR MARKET) ≈ +1.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Only 5 runs at this distanceLost roughly 2.7 lengths at the start last timeCut 2lb after losing the start last time — but our checklist rejected that excuse: the cut more likely reflects declining formRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the price

LTO comment

“soon detached”

#6 HORWICH HELD-UP

DRAW 4 · OR 60 · James Sullivan / Ruth Carr

MARKET 29 · the market rates it a 3% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−

46.7 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

6th on the figures, 23.3pts off the top, dropping in class; the clock has it fading late.

FormLab Figure

46.7 · ranked #6 here · career best 77

Official mark (OR)

60 · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 2 tries

Days since last run

15

Sectional clock

Last time: 2.1s slower than par — the result flattered it · among the slowest in its race
Usually races midfield

Run style & finish

Held up · finishing speed 100.72% (holds late)

Headgear

Hood

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

12thClass 5 · 8.6f · rated 226thClass 6 · 8.0f · rated 646thClass 5 · 7.2f · rated 544thClass 5 · 7.2f · rated 6612thClass 5 · 7.0f · rated —

Career sheet · last 18 months · 10 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Ruth Carr · 1261 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 7.6 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At this time of year (Q3)37/35310.5%1.14/2814.3%1.43

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦38/4638.2%0.9510/1506.7%0.68

In fields of <=719/12615.1%1.044/3810.5%0.75

On turf58/52111.1%1.2313/1647.9%0.77

Too few runners to read reliably

At Nottingham (small sample)3/2213.6%1.490/40.0%0.0

Over 9-10f trips (small sample)7/7010.0%1.531/166.2%0.83

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 83 at/around today's trip, clears the ~69.0 demand

The rider

James Sullivan · last 14 days: 1/13 · at Nottingham: A/E 0.96 (n23) · with this yard: A/E 1.18 (n793)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields4th of 6

-0.13 mph

About the level of its fields · 38.5 raw

Break · 0-20mph4th of 6

+0.28s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed4th of 6

100.7%

Holds its gallop to the line

Stride length4th of 6

7.07 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

6 Jul 26Wolverhampton8fStd12thSlow early37.1 -1.75105.2+0.29

15 Jun 26Wetherby8fGd/Frm6thFast early39.8 +0.0699.4+0.30

29 May 26Wolverhampton7fStd6th—39.6 +0.71100.2+0.01

18 May 26Wolverhampton7fStd4thTrue39.2 -0.03106.0+0.14

25 Apr 26Leicester7fGd/Frm12thTrue41.6 -0.0289.6+0.58

7 Apr 26Southwell6fStd9thTrue40.3 +0.25104.0+0.39

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.83par2f+1.17very slow3f+1.41very slow4f+1.33very slow5f+1.22slow6f+1.52par7f+2.31par1m+2.86par1m 1f+3.89very slow

Timed runs 2026-04-07 to 2026-07-06. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met

Read through a common rival

vs TAKEITORLEAVEIT (IRE) (read through DARETOBEDIFFERENT, SUGGY, KARAKULA DANCER) ≈ -6.0L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

vs THE BUREAU CLUB (FR) (read through ESPONA BAY, COURT OF STARS, FLYTA) ≈ +2.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

vs KATALYST (read through STELLA LUCENTE, ESPANITA, SAFE HARBOR, MAYFAIR MARKET) ≈ -1.1L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 6 todayDrops in class todayOnly 2 runs at this distanceStable in form this week — 2 wins from 10 runsRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionHistorically underestimated by the market

LTO comment

“steadied start, dropped out, still off pace 3f out, switched approaching final 1f, ran on, nearest finish”