THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 30.2%winner in the projected 1–2–3 64.1%192 races · latest settled day: #1 4/16, top-3 9/16forensic read: #1 27.7% · top-3 63% (119)full record →
The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW
OUR FELLA (IRE) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself. Winners here spend about 49% of their energy before the final two furlongs and quicken late. On the measured reads, GLAMORIZE (IRE) leads on 86, 21pts clear of OUR FELLA (IRE) — backed since the morning. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is HAVANA GIFT — the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The market agrees — it makes GLAMORIZE (IRE) the 69% favourite.
MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE
The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3
1ST · DATA ORDERDRAW 3
GLAMORIZE (IRE)
OR 84 · David Egan / George Scott
MARKET backed 1.64 → 1.46 · the market rates it a 69% chance
86.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 4+ / 0−Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (86.0)A course winner (1 from 1 here)
2ND · DATA ORDERDRAW 1
OUR FELLA (IRE)
OR 64 · John Egan / J. S. Moore
MARKET drifting 4.8 → 6.4 · the market rates it a 16% chance
65.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−Rated #2 in this field (65.0)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultRace-fit — ran 7 days ago
3RD · DATA ORDERDRAW 2
HAVANA GIFT
OR 68 · Warren Fentiman / John & Sean Quinn
MARKET drifting 5.7 → 6.4 · the market rates it a 16% chance
62.0FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD
Yard suits today’s conditions · 5+ / 0−Rated #3 in this field (62.0)Jockey goes well at this track (1.77x market expectation)Met trouble in running recently — better than the bare result
The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY
1GLAMORIZE (IRE)net +7figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, backed since morning, top-2 speed vs its fields, yard hot
2HAVANA GIFTnet +5race-fit (ran <=45d), market top-3, sharp from the stalls, energy in the winning band, yard hot
3OUR FELLA (IRE)net +3figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 speed vs its fields, energy in the winning band − figure earned on another surface, habitually slow away, yard cold
EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD
THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK
Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. HAVANA GIFT is the one to beat it — an edge GLAMORIZE (IRE) lacks: sharp from the stalls.
Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.
Race ShapePACE × FINISH
one confirmed early type — lone-lead possible. Descriptive context — the shape never selects.
Where the pace is drawn · 3 runners · stalls 1–3
123
Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner.
If the ground changes
Should it turn softer: GLAMORIZE (IRE) is unraced on softer ground · OUR FELLA (IRE) is 0/1 on softer ground · HAVANA GIFT is 0/1 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).
RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup
GLAMORIZE (IRE)HELD-UP50.5%99.8the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front
HAVANA GIFTMID49.8%100.6the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it
OUR FELLA (IRE)PROMINENT49.6%99.8the only measured early speed in the race, at the tempo that wins here — but holds one pace late; often slow away, which can cost the spot
The early fight · measured
Who actually gets the front: each confirmed early type’s speed over the opening 2f of its own recent races, compared with the horses it faced that day — plus how sharply it leaves the stalls.
OUR FELLA (IRE)PROMINENTtypically ~1 lengths quicker through the opening 2f than the rivals it has met · a beat slow from the stalls (0.26s off the best)
OUR FELLA (IRE) is the only confirmed early type — if it breaks level it should get the front to itself · context only — the shape never selects.
The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER
#1GLAMORIZE (IRE)HELD-UP
DRAW 3 · OR 84 · David Egan / George Scott
MARKET backed 1.64 → 1.46 · the market rates it a 69% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 4+ / 0−
86.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
Top on the figures, 21pts clear of the next, backed since the morning; the 2nd-strongest late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front.
FormLab Figure
86.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 86
Official mark (OR)
84 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
1 win from 3 tries · beats market expectation (1.77)
Days since last run
17
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.7s) Usually races midfield-closer · clock read is off a superseded run
Run style & finish
Held up · finishing speed 99.85% (one-paced late)
Headgear
First-time cheekpieces · yard 8% with first-time gear (A/E 0.8)
Recent form · last 3 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 3 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
George Scott · 693 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 3.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
Coming back after 15 to 45 days ✦40/24816.1%1.1616/6225.8%1.42
On turf ✦54/34815.5%1.1822/10820.4%1.23
In fields of <=7 ✦31/14321.7%1.0217/5729.8%1.17
In Class 4-5 company ✦56/33216.9%1.0919/9619.8%1.15
Too few runners to read reliably
At Nottingham (small sample)0/80.0%0.01/520.0%1.13
Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 85 at/around today's trip, clears the ~72.0 demand
The rider
David Egan · last 14 days: 7/27· at Nottingham: A/E 1.24 (n30)· with this yard: A/E 1.12 (n38)
Sectional profile · last 3 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields2nd of 3
-0.09 mph
About the level of its fields · 40.6 raw
Break · 0-20mph2nd of 3
+0.06s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed2nd of 3
99.8%
One-paced late
Stride length1st of 3
7.56 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
30 May 26Lingfield4fGd/Frm2ndTrue43.3 -0.2799.0+0.09
Timed runs 2026-05-30 to 2026-07-04. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 4 todayThe top rating in this field (86.0)Improving fast — last run rated 86, 10pts above his recent average of 75.7Only 3 runs at this distanceA course winner (1 from 1 here)
LTO comment
“mid-division, ridden over 2f out, not quicken”
#2OUR FELLA (IRE)PROMINENT
DRAW 1 · OR 64 · John Egan / J. S. Moore
MARKET drifting 4.8 → 6.4 · the market rates it a 16% chance
Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−
65.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
2nd on the figures, 21pts off the top, in form; its figure was earned on a different surface.
FormLab Figure
65.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 65
Official mark (OR)
64 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 4 tries
Days since last run
7
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade faster than par (+0.6s) · faster than its field on the clock Usually races prominent and weakens
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
J. S. Moore · 520 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 8.7 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where the yard is weaker in these conditions
At this time of year (Q3)10/1546.5%0.820/170.0%0.0
Over 5-6f trips8/1375.8%0.71/482.1%0.39
On turf14/2186.4%0.862/712.8%0.43
In Class 4-5 company17/1729.9%1.482/593.4%0.51
Too few runners to read reliably
At Nottingham (small sample)0/20.0%0.00/10.0%0.0
Coming back after within 7 days (small sample)1/382.6%0.210/80.0%0.0
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 66 is below the ~72.0 the race demands
The rider
John Egan · last 14 days: 1/12· at Nottingham: A/E 0 (n16)· with this yard: A/E 0 (n4)
Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields1st of 3
+0.12 mph
About the level of its fields · 42.3 raw
Break · 0-20mph3rd of 3
+0.26s
Slow away in 2 of 4 — habitual, so the market already knows
Finish · closing speed3rd of 3
99.8%
One-paced late
Stride length3rd of 3
7.46 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-05-12 to 2026-07-14. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Figure OFF-CONTEXT (C6→C4) — earned under different conditionsRated #2 in this field (65.0)Improving fast — last run rated 65, 10pts above his recent average of 54.7Only 4 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultRace-fit — ran 7 days ago
LTO comment
“tracked pace, hampered briefly halfway, ridden when led under 2f out, headed approaching final 1f, no extra final 100 yds”
#3HAVANA GIFTMID
DRAW 2 · OR 68 · Warren Fentiman / John & Sean Quinn
MARKET drifting 5.7 → 6.4 · the market rates it a 16% chance
Yard suits today’s conditions · 5+ / 0−
62.0FORMLAB FIGURE
BOTTOM LINE
3rd on the figures, 24pts off the top, sharp from the stalls; the strongest late speed in this field, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.
FormLab Figure
62.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 64
Official mark (OR)
68 · no win on record
Record at today's distance
0 wins from 4 tries
Days since last run
19
Sectional clock
Last time: a shade below par (-0.5s) Usually races midfield
Run style & finish
Midfield · finishing speed 100.56% (holds late)
Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures
Career sheet · last 18 months · 4 rated runs · spacing is real time
Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.
Trainer form · today's exact conditions
John & Sean Quinn · 782 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 6.6 on the exchange
Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E
Where this yard does well in today's conditions
At this time of year (Q3)28/27810.1%0.913/1816.7%1.78
Over 5-6f trips35/32810.7%0.9713/9214.1%1.67
In fields of <=720/12016.7%1.07/3520.0%1.61
On turf46/4859.5%0.8411/10310.7%1.34
Coming back after 15 to 45 days31/30010.3%0.938/7710.4%1.15
Too few runners to read reliably
At Nottingham (small sample)0/120.0%0.01/714.3%1.47
Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 64 is below the ~72.0 the race demands
The rider
Warren Fentiman · last 14 days: 0/16· at Nottingham: A/E 1.77 (n9)· with this yard: A/E 1.73 (n8)
Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field
Speed · vs its fields3rd of 3
-0.30 mph
Slower than the fields it has met · 40.8 raw
Break · 0-20mph1st of 3
+0.05s
Slower away than the field's best breaker
Finish · closing speed1st of 3
100.6%
Holds its gallop to the line
Stride length2nd of 3
7.53 m
Average stride per timed run
DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy
Timed runs 2026-04-18 to 2026-07-02. · 1 run(s) have no recorded top speed; 1 have no 0-20mph split — Race IQ has yet to publish these; they fill on the next ingest.· finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none.· 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.
Rated #3 in this field (62.0)Only 4 runs at this distanceJockey goes well at this track (1.77x market expectation)Recent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare result
LTO comment
“held up, headway when not clear run 2f out, edged left 1f out, one paced”