FORMLAB Race Report — Nottingham 14:45

FORMLAB RACING

THE SCIENCE OF FORM  ·  RACE INTELLIGENCE REPORT

Nottingham · 14:45

Class 6 · 10.23f · Good to Firm (Good in places)

GENERATED 2026-07-21 · 6 RUNNERS PROFILED

THE RECORD · LAST 30 DAYS#1 won 30.2%winner in the projected 1–2–3 64.1%192 races · latest settled day: #1 4/16, top-3 9/16forensic read: #1 27.7% · top-3 63% (119)full record →

The ReadCOMPOSED FROM THE MEASURES BELOW

No confirmed early pace on the book, so this one may turn tactical. Winners here spend about 48% of their energy before the final two furlongs and quicken late. On the measured reads, NYMPHAEA leads on 55, 0pts clear of ARC AT HER — among the two fastest on speed against its past fields. Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. The shape danger is HELLO GARDA (IRE) — a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it. The market sees it differently, making CHARENCEY (IRE) the 25% favourite — a horse our figures rate 6th.

MACHINE-COMPOSED FROM THE MEASURED READS BELOW · THE ORDER IS MEASURED, NOT TIPPED · THE MARKET DECIDES VALUE

The Data OrderMEASURED SPINE · THE FIGURE LEADS · 1 · 2 · 3

1ST · DATA ORDER DRAW 1

NYMPHAEA

OR  · Jude Fernandes / Jennie Candlish

MARKET 4.6 · the market rates it a 22% chance

55.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #1 OF FIELD

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayThe top rating in this field (55.0)A course winner (1 from 2 here)

2ND · DATA ORDER DRAW 4

ARC AT HER

OR  · Kyle McHugh / Dylan Cunha

MARKET 24 · the market rates it a 4% chance

55.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #2 OF FIELD

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−Rated #2 in this field (55.0)Jockey goes well at this track (1.51x market expectation)

3RD · DATA ORDER DRAW 3

SPACEAGE LOVE SONG (IRE)

OR  · Joe Bradnam / Michael Bell

MARKET 4.8 · the market rates it a 21% chance

54.0 FORMLAB FIGURE · #3 OF FIELD

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 3−Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #3 in this field (54.0)Race-fit — ran 6 days ago

The Forensic ReadALL THE REPORT’S READS, COUNTED · CONTEXT ONLY

1NYMPHAEAnet +6figure top-2, race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, top-2 late speed today, top-2 speed vs its fields

2HELLO GARDA (IRE)net +5race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), top-2 late speed today, sharp from the stalls, energy in the winning band

3MYNA (IRE)net +3race-fit (ran <=45d), form (top-3 LTO or recent win), market top-3, FormLab watch flag − habitually slow away

EVERY COUNT IS A NAMED READ SHOWN IN THIS REPORT · FIGURE BREAKS TIES · THIS ORDER IS CONTEXT — THE DATA ORDER REMAINS THE MEASURED SPINE · BOTH ORDERS ARE SETTLED NIGHTLY IN THE RECORD

THE CASE AGAINST THE TOP PICK

Little to argue against on the measured reads — the only question is the price. HELLO GARDA (IRE) is the one to beat it — an edge NYMPHAEA lacks: sharp from the stalls.

Balance, not doubt for its own sake — every pick has a case against; a reader should see ours.

Worth A Second Look

These horses rank lower on raw ability figures — but today's race fits a pattern their stable has repeatedly won in. In plain terms, why each deserves another look before you dismiss it.

MYNA (IRE) FIGURE #5

Tony Carroll's runners in Class 6-7 company win 13.8% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons. Tony Carroll's runners kept to the same class win 13.8% across all tracks and beat market expectation in both seasons.

Race ShapePACE × FINISH

even/unclear early shape (no confirmed early types). Descriptive context — the shape never selects.

Where the pace is drawn · 6 runners · stalls 1–6

123456

Stall number over each runner’s usual early position (amber = front/prominent, blue = mid/held-up, grey = no read; a dashed stall is vacant). Hover a stall for the runner.

If the ground changes

Should it turn softer: NYMPHAEA is 0/4 on softer ground · ARC AT HER is 0/2 on softer ground · SPACEAGE LOVE SONG (IRE) is 0/1 on softer ground. Records only — going aptitude is context, never a downgrade (the market prices it).

RunnerEarly%E earlyLate speed · FSPSetup

CHARENCEY (IRE) MID 49.4% 99.3 one-paced late — 5th of 6 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front

MYNA (IRE) MID 49.8% 104.0 a genuine turn of foot — 4th-best late speed here, yet works hard early for a closer — profits if the early types overdo it

NYMPHAEA MID 46.8% 110.6 the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it

SPACEAGE LOVE SONG (IRE) MID 47.9% 106.4 a genuine turn of foot — 3rd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it

ARC AT HER MID 49.7% 98.4 held up without the late gear (6th of 6 on late speed), yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front

HELLO GARDA (IRE) MID 48.5% 108.3 a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it

The Field · Forensic ReadsFIGURE ORDER

#1 NYMPHAEA MID

DRAW 1 · OR  · Jude Fernandes / Jennie Candlish

MARKET 4.6 · the market rates it a 22% chance

Yard mixed — leans against · 1+ / 3−

55.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

Top on the figures, just ahead of the next, among the two fastest on speed against its past fields; the strongest late speed in this field, saving plenty for the finish — profits if the early types overdo it.

FormLab Figure

55.0 · ranked #1 here · career best 56

Official mark (OR)

unrated · last won off 48

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 3 tries

Days since last run

26

Sectional clock

No timed runs on record

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 110.61% (strong late)

Headgear

Cheekpieces

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

1stClass 6 · 14.0f · rated 552ndClass 6 · 11.4f · rated 553rdClass 6 · 16.3f · rated 524thClass 6 · 14.1f · rated 496thClass 6 · 12.1f · rated 52

Career sheet · last 18 months · 14 rated runs · spacing is real time

Points are Timeform ratings for each run; the FormLab Figure is the stronger of the last run and the 3-run average of them. Hollow = earned 2f+ from today's trip. Shaded = the 6 runs behind the sectional reads.

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Jennie Candlish · 485 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.5 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

At this time of year (Q3)16/12512.8%1.282/1216.7%1.15

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In fields of <=715/6622.7%1.212/248.3%0.5

On turf27/20113.4%1.326/758.0%0.7

Coming back after 15 to 45 days17/14112.1%1.25/628.1%0.85

Too few runners to read reliably

At Nottingham (small sample)1/137.7%0.781/250.0%2.23

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 59 at/around today's trip, clears the ~54.0 demand

The rider

Jude Fernandes · last 14 days: 1/6 · at Nottingham: A/E 0 (n2) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n1)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields1st of 6

+0.48 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 37.3 raw

Break · 0-20mph4th of 6

+0.16s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed1st of 6

110.6%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length5th of 6

6.97 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

1 Jul 26Epsom Downs12fGood (Good To Firm In Places)5th—39.0 +0.09112.1+0.06—

25 Jun 26Nottingham14fGd/Frm1stTrue39.6 +1.16113.0+0.15

8 Jun 26Windsor11fGd/Sft2ndTrue37.3 +0.23105.5+0.25

19 May 26Newcastle16.1fStd3rdTrue40.2 +0.74125.0+0.08

30 Apr 26Southwell14fStd4thTrue37.1 +0.65106.3+0.00

15 Apr 26Beverley12fGd/Sft6thTrue36.5 -0.01101.7+0.41

Timed runs 2026-04-15 to 2026-07-01. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met

SPACEAGE LOVE SONG (IRE) · 2 meetings≈ 0.8L behind on today's terms · reverses

25 Mar 26 · 12f · Std — finished 9th vs 5th, 13.5L behind

THIN [n=2 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — reverses vs 1 rival(s) met (-0.8L adj, 2 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs CHARENCEY (IRE) (read through WHATACRACKER, ARGENTUM, GUINNESS LAD, SISTERANDBROTHER) ≈ -4.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

vs MYNA (IRE) (read through FILLYFUDGE, NAUGHTY NIALL, MUHIB, STAR OF JUPITER) ≈ +3.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayThe top rating in this field (55.0)Only 3 runs at this distanceHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceA course winner (1 from 2 here)

LTO comment

“waited with, headway to lead 2f out, looked in control approaching final 1f, challenged final 100 yds, just held on”

#2 ARC AT HER MID

DRAW 4 · OR  · Kyle McHugh / Dylan Cunha

MARKET 24 · the market rates it a 4% chance

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 4−

55.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

Level at the head of the figures (2nd), fit and race-ready; tends to burn early and empty out.

FormLab Figure

55.0 · ranked #2 here · career best 55

Official mark (OR)

unrated · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 1 tries

Days since last run

17

Sectional clock

No timed runs on record

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 98.36% (one-paced late)

Headgear

First-time cheekpieces · yard 14% with first-time gear (A/E 1.51)

Recent form · last 4 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

9thClass 6 · 10.0f · rated —12thClass 4 · 7.6f · rated —4thClass 5 · 8.6f · rated 559thClass 4 · 8.0f · rated 43

Career sheet · last 18 months · 2 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Dylan Cunha · 811 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.8 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In Class 6-7 company26/18514.1%1.030/420.0%0.0

Coming back after 15 to 45 days39/28713.6%1.084/1014.0%0.39

At this time of year (Q3)23/20311.3%0.991/254.0%0.42

In fields of <=7 ✦24/15415.6%0.916/619.8%0.58

Too few runners to read reliably

At Nottingham (small sample)7/2528.0%1.860/80.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 53 is below the ~54.0 the race demands

The rider

Kyle McHugh · last 14 days: 1/5 · at Nottingham: A/E 1.51 (n10)

Sectional profile · last 4 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields6th of 6

-0.66 mph

Slower than the fields it has met · 38.1 raw

Break · 0-20mph5th of 6

+0.26s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed6th of 6

98.4%

One-paced late

Stride length6th of 6

6.83 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

4 Jul 26Leicester10fGd/Frm9th—38.1 -0.94100.7+0.10—

6 Jun 26Lingfield7fSoft12thTrue38.3 -0.8985.2+0.33

18 May 26Wolverhampton8fStd4thTrue37.8 -0.33103.2+0.07

2 May 26Goodwood8fGood9thTrue39.1 -0.49104.3+0.53

Timed runs 2026-05-02 to 2026-07-04. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met

CHARENCEY (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 80.8L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

4 Jul 26 · 10f · Gd/Frm — finished 9th vs 6th, 80.75L behind

THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — REVERSES strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (-80.8L adj, 1 meeting(s))

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Rated #2 in this field (55.0)Only 1 run at this distanceJockey goes well at this track (1.51x market expectation)

LTO comment

“tracked pace, beaten long way out”

#3 SPACEAGE LOVE SONG (IRE) MID

DRAW 3 · OR  · Joe Bradnam / Michael Bell

MARKET 4.8 · the market rates it a 21% chance

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 3−

54.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

3rd on the figures, 1pts off the top, runs the winning energy pattern for the track; a yard out of form.

FormLab Figure

54.0 · ranked #3 here · career best 55

Official mark (OR)

unrated · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 5 tries

Days since last run

6

Sectional clock

No timed runs on record

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 106.39% (strong late)

Headgear

Visor · yard 8% with first-time gear (A/E 0.62)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

2ndClass 6 · 11.5f · rated 542ndClass 6 · 10.1f · rated 545thClass 6 · 12.0f · rated 467thClass 6 · 14.1f · rated 407thClass 6 · 14.0f · rated 53

Career sheet · last 18 months · 9 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Michael Bell · 846 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 4.5 on the exchange

Signature angle: jockey_named Hector Crouch, with the retained rider up

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

In Class 6-7 company ✦20/11417.5%0.924/3511.4%0.67

On turf57/42313.5%1.0712/1249.7%0.7

At this time of year (Q3)38/28313.4%1.03/2810.7%0.84

Too few runners to read reliably

At Nottingham (small sample)1/911.1%0.882/1118.2%1.45

Coming back after within 7 days (small sample)4/1723.5%0.841/714.3%0.55

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 56 at/around today's trip, clears the ~54.0 demand

The rider

Joe Bradnam · last 14 days: 0/4 · at Nottingham: A/E 0 (n7) · with this yard: A/E 0.87 (n45)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields5th of 6

-0.00 mph

About the level of its fields · 39.1 raw

Break · 0-20mph2nd of 6

+0.07s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed3rd of 6

106.4%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length2nd of 6

7.45 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

15 Jul 26Yarmouth11fGd/Frm2ndSlow early39.8 +0.00109.6+0.12

8 Jul 26Yarmouth10fGd/Frm2ndTrue39.1 -0.1399.9+0.01

13 Mar 26Southwell14fStd7thSlow early38.7 -0.71113.0+0.00

17 Feb 26Wolverhampton13fStd7thTrue36.9 +0.17107.0+0.05

9 Feb 26Wolverhampton12fStd1stTrue37.9 +0.66105.6+0.19

21 Jan 26Lingfield10fSlow5thTrue38.3 -0.01103.3+0.08

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.35par2f+0.16par3f+0.18slow4f+0.17slow5f+0.15very slow6f+0.08very slow7f+0.07par1mledfast1m 1fledvery fast1m 2f+0.12very fast1m 3f+0.42very fast

Timed runs 2026-01-21 to 2026-07-15. · 2 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met

NYMPHAEA · 2 meetings≈ 0.8L ahead on today's terms · confirms

25 Mar 26 · 12f · Std — finished 5th vs 9th, 13.5L ahead

MYNA (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 4.3L behind on today's terms · REVERSES strongly

21 Jan 26 · 10f · Slow — finished 5th vs 1st, 4.35L behind

THIN [single meeting dominates the net] — context only, not a bet leg — reverses vs 2 rival(s) met (-1.2L adj, 3 meeting(s))

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayRated #3 in this field (54.0)Only 5 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionRace-fit — ran 6 days agoHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance

LTO comment

“in touch, under pressure 3f out, one paced”

#4 HELLO GARDA (IRE) MID

DRAW 2 · OR  · 9-0 · −7lb claim = 8-7 carried · Finlay Bassett / John Joseph Hanlon, Ireland

MARKET drifting 11 → 14.5 · the market rates it a 7% chance

Yard poor for today’s conditions · 0+ / 5−

54.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

4th on the figures, 1pts off the top, sharp from the stalls; a genuine turn of foot — 2nd-best late speed here, races handy on energy — profits if the early types overdo it.

FormLab Figure

54.0 · ranked #4 here · career best 54

Official mark (OR)

unrated · no win on record

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 2 tries

Days since last run

24

Sectional clock

No timed runs on record

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 108.32% (strong late)

Headgear

First-time cheekpieces

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

2ndClass 6 · 10.0f · rated 544thClass 6 · 11.9f · rated 3312thClass · 9.5f · rated 4810thClass · 8.0f · rated 388thClass · 8.0f · rated 38

Career sheet · last 18 months · 5 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

John Joseph Hanlon, Ireland · 68 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 19.7 on the exchange

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where the yard is weaker in these conditions

Over 9-10f trips0/100.0%0.00/70.0%0.0

Coming back after 15 to 45 days0/140.0%0.00/50.0%0.0

At this time of year (Q3)0/220.0%0.0—

On turf1/333.0%0.930/60.0%0.0

In fields of <=70/30.0%0.00/50.0%0.0

Too few runners to read reliably

In Class 6-7 company (small sample)0/60.0%0.00/20.0%0.0

Can it do what today needs? Below the level — career best 44 is below the ~54.0 the race demands

The rider

Finlay Bassett · last 14 days: 0/6 · at Nottingham: A/E 0 (n3) · with this yard: A/E 0 (n1)

Sectional profile · last 2 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields2nd of 6

+0.28 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 41.5 raw · only 2 runs

Break · 0-20mph1st of 6

+0.04s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed2nd of 6

108.3%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length1st of 6

7.53 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

27 Jun 26Chepstow10fGd/Frm2ndTrue39.9 +0.49106.0+0.08

22 Jun 26Brighton11fGd/Frm4thSlow early43.2 +0.08110.7+0.00

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.28par2f+0.33very slow3f+0.20slow4f+0.04fast5fledfast6fledpar7fledpar1mledpar1m 1f+0.03par1m 2f+0.48slow

Timed runs 2026-06-22 to 2026-06-27. · 1 of these were falsely run (slow early) — those bare results understate a closer and flatter whoever got an easy lead. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

Improving fast — last run rated 54, 9pts above his recent average of 45.0Only 2 runs at this distanceRecent comments suggest he weakens late — a stamina questionMet trouble in running recently — better than the bare resultHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance

LTO comment

“in touch, outpaced over 3f out, weakened approaching final 1f”

#5 MYNA (IRE) MID FORMLAB WATCH

DRAW 6 · OR  · Matthew Lloyd Slater / Tony Carroll

MARKET 4.7 · the market rates it a 21% chance

Yard suits today’s conditions · 1+ / 0−

52.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

5th on the figures, 3pts off the top, flagged on our watch list; habitually slow from the stalls.

FormLab Figure

52.0 · ranked #5 here · career best 68

Official mark (OR)

unrated · last won off 48

Record at today's distance

2 wins from 19 tries · below market expectation (0.84)

Days since last run

14

Sectional clock

No timed runs on record

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 103.98% (strong late)

Headgear

Hood · yard 9% with first-time gear (A/E 0.96)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

2ndClass 6 · 9.9f · rated 524thClass 6 · 10.0f · rated 504thClass 6 · 10.0f · rated 531stClass 6 · 10.0f · rated 556thClass 6 · 10.0f · rated 45

Career sheet · last 18 months · 15 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Tony Carroll · 2389 runs since 2024 · winners usually around 5.4 on the exchange

Signature angle: at Bath, at this time of year (Q2), on turf, off a TFR-FALLING figure trend, with the mark MARK-FLAT, with a CLAIM-7 claimer up

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Where this yard does well in today's conditions

On turf ✦97/70713.7%1.247/23320.2%1.42

Too few runners to read reliably

At Nottingham (small sample)2/229.1%1.281/147.1%0.82

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 68 at/around today's trip, clears the ~54.0 demand

The rider

Matthew Lloyd Slater · last 14 days: 0/5 · at Nottingham: A/E 0 (n3) · with this yard: A/E 1.1 (n106)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields3rd of 6

+0.17 mph

Faster than the fields it has met · 38.4 raw

Break · 0-20mph6th of 6

+0.28s

Slow away in 3 of 6 — habitual, so the market already knows

Finish · closing speed4th of 6

104.0%

Sustains — still going at the line

Stride length3rd of 6

7.31 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

7 Jul 26Brighton9fGd/Frm2ndTrue42.3 +0.95104.3+0.50

18 Jun 26Lingfield10fGood4thTrue40.1 +0.75109.4+0.52

26 May 26Leicester10fFirm4thTrue39.1 -0.44101.9+0.24

9 May 26Leicester10fGd/Frm1stTrue37.4 -0.30102.6+0.38

12 Mar 26Newcastle10fStd3rdFast early36.8 -0.02100.5-0.07

23 Feb 26Wolverhampton9fSlow2ndFast early38.9 +0.09105.2+0.10

Last run, sector by sector · gap to the leader (s) · sector pace

1f+0.68very slow2f+0.76slow3f+0.72very slow4f+0.69slow5f+0.70slow6f+0.62very fast7f+0.36fast1m+0.14fast1m 1f+0.20fast1m 2f+0.52fast

Timed runs 2026-02-23 to 2026-07-07. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met

SPACEAGE LOVE SONG (IRE) · 1 meeting≈ 4.3L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

21 Jan 26 · 10f · Slow — finished 1st vs 5th, 4.35L ahead

THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+4.3L adj, 1 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs CHARENCEY (IRE) (read through OTTOMAN, CITY ESCAPE, VERSATILE, MOORETOWN LAD) ≈ +4.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

vs NYMPHAEA (read through FILLYFUDGE, NAUGHTY NIALL, MUHIB, STAR OF JUPITER) ≈ -3.4L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Proven at this level — a Class 6 winner, racing in Class 6 todayStable in form this week — 3 wins from 15 runsHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance

LTO comment

“slowly away, off pace, headway from 2f out, kept on final 1f, never on terms”

#6 CHARENCEY (IRE) MID

DRAW 5 · OR  · Toby Moore / Ian Williams

MARKET backed 4.4 → 4 · the market rates it a 25% chance

51.0 FORMLAB FIGURE

BOTTOM LINE

6th on the figures, 4pts off the top, backed since the morning; one-paced late — 5th of 6 on late speed in this field, yet works hard early for a closer — needs them to stop in front.

FormLab Figure

51.0 · ranked #6 here · career best 82

Official mark (OR)

unrated · last won off 73

Record at today's distance

0 wins from 4 tries

Days since last run

17

Sectional clock

No timed runs on record

Run style & finish

Midfield · finishing speed 99.33% (one-paced late)

Headgear

Visor and tongue strap · yard 8% with first-time gear (A/E 0.81)

Recent form · last 5 runs, most recent first · ratings are FormLab figures

6thClass 6 · 10.0f · rated 517thClass 6 · 8.1f · rated 395thClass 6 · 8.3f · rated 546thClass 6 · 10.0f · rated 535thClass 5 · 10.2f · rated 55

Career sheet · last 18 months · 12 rated runs · spacing is real time

Trainer form · today's exact conditions

Christian Williams

Condition today2024-25SRA/E2026SRA/E

Can it do what today needs? Capable — has run to 82 at/around today's trip, clears the ~54.0 demand

The rider

Toby Moore · last 14 days: 1/3 · at Nottingham: A/E 0 (n2) · with this yard: A/E 2.82 (n4)

Sectional profile · last 6 timed runs · ranks are against today's field

Speed · vs its fields4th of 6

+0.03 mph

About the level of its fields · 39.0 raw

Break · 0-20mph3rd of 6

+0.15s

Slower away than the field's best breaker

Finish · closing speed5th of 6

99.3%

One-paced late

Stride length4th of 6

7.07 m

Average stride per timed run

DateCourseTripGoingFinRace paceTop spd · adjFSP %BreakEnergy

4 Jul 26Leicester10fGd/Frm6th—39.1 +0.05100.7+0.22—

6 Jun 26Chepstow8fSoft7thFast early40.0 -0.7690.0+0.15

18 Apr 26Nottingham8fGood5thTrue38.3 +0.06103.0+0.15

14 Oct 25Leicester10fGd/Sft6thTrue39.2 +0.2997.0-0.07

26 Sep 25Haydock Park10fGood5thTrue37.8 +0.02101.8+0.14

9 Sep 25Leicester10fFirm4thTrue39.8 +0.50103.6+0.29

Timed runs 2025-09-09 to 2026-07-04. · finishing speed for 1 run(s) supplied by Timeform where Race IQ had none. Sectional reads are context — they never pick the horse.

HEAD-TO-HEAD · today's rivals it has met

ARC AT HER · 1 meeting≈ 80.8L ahead on today's terms · CONFIRMS strongly

4 Jul 26 · 10f · Gd/Frm — finished 6th vs 9th, 80.75L ahead

THIN [n=1 meeting(s), 1 opponent(s)] — context only, not a bet leg — CONFIRMS strongly vs 1 rival(s) met (+80.8L adj, 1 meeting(s))

Read through a common rival

vs MYNA (IRE) (read through OTTOMAN, CITY ESCAPE, VERSATILE, MOORETOWN LAD) ≈ -4.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

vs NYMPHAEA (read through WHATACRACKER, ARGENTUM, GUINNESS LAD, SISTERANDBROTHER) ≈ +4.3L — CHAINED — context only, never a bet leg

Head-to-head lines are context — conditions change, horses change; they never pick the horse.

Proven at this level — a Class 4 winner, racing in Class 6 todayOnly 4 runs at this distanceHistorically over-bet by the market — take care with the priceSectional speed profile fits here — but his run-style (Mid) is rare among winners at this course & distance

LTO comment

“mid-field, ridden over 2f out, not quicken”